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The Markets

Chart comments and fundamental notes for the markets below -

Grains & Cotton >
January 12, 2010

Livestock & Lumber >
January 22, 2010

Softs >
February 1, 2010

Metals >
January 20, 2010

Energies >
February 4, 2010

Financials >
February 5, 2010

Currencies >
February 5, 2010

Long-term Charts

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Monday, February 8, 2010

U.S. Economy
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner told ABC News yesterday that the U.S. is in no danger of losing its Aaa credit rating, even with the current projections of high budget deficits. He added that the government plans to reduce the deficits after the labor market recovers. The March U.S. T-bonds closed down 18.32nds at 118.30/32nds.

Grains and Cotton
Overall, grains were steady to higher ahead of tomorrow's monthly USDA estimates. March soybeans closed up 16 cents at $9.295.

The USDA said that last week's export inspections of:
Corn totaled 27.1 million bushels, down 11% from a year ago.
Soybeans totaled 39.6 million bushels, down 18% from a year ago.
Wheat totaled 16.9 million bushels, down 12% from a year ago.

The National Cotton Council said that its survey of growers points to 10.1 million acres of planted cotton this year, up 10% from last year. March cotton closed up 2.54 cents at 69.16, rebounding strong from Friday's big drop, ahead of tomorrow's USDA estimates.

Livestock
April hogs closed up 2.05 cents at 68.77 after this weekend's winter storm hit the mid-Atlantic states. Another one is expected to develop in the central U.S. this week.

Lumber
Canada's Mortgage and Housing Corp. said that housing starts were at an annual rate of 186,300 in January, up 5.8% from December's pace and more than expected. May lumber ended down $2.00 at $289.00.

Sugar
According to Agrimoney.com, the private firm, Kingsman, increased its estimate of the 2009-2010 world production deficit from 8.3 to 11.9 million tons. March sugar closed up .43 at 26.60.

Orange juice
Temperatures in central Florida are expected to dip into the 30's on Wednesday, but no significant freezing is expected. March orange juice was up .30 at $1.3425.

Energies
Yesterday's 6 to 10 day forecast from the National Weather Service expects below average temperatures for the eastern half of the U.S. Over the weekend, the mid-Atlantic states received heavy snow. March natural gas fell 11.4 cents to $5.401.

April crude oil ended up .77 at $72.29 after Iran announced that it would begin enriching its uranium to 20%, starting tomorrow. The move is seen as a threat that puts Iran closer to having weapons-grade uranium.

Metals
April gold closed up $13.40 at $1,066.20, trying to bounce back from last week's sell-off and dollar rally.

Currencies
The Bank of Japan said that bank lending was down 1.5% in January from a year ago, the largest annual decline in over four years. The March yen closed down .0023 at 1.1193.

India's government said that it expects real GDP to be up 7.2% in 2009-2010.


How's Your Trading?
Today's news might be interesting, but did it help your trading? For more practical insights, read the chart comments in "The Markets" section.

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(Possible) Market-Moving News of 2010:

January 21 - Brazil Ag official estimates the upcoming coffee crop at a lower 39 million bags due to recent heavy rains.

January 12 - China surprised the markets and raised its bank reserve requirement from 14.5% to 15.0% in an attempt to restrain the economy.

(Possible) Market-Moving News of 2009:

December 17 - Standard and Poor's cut Greece's credit rating from A- to BBB+.

December 9 - Japan's real GDP +.3% in Q3 and down 5.1% from a year ago, much weaker than last month's estimate.

December 7 - Barron's: "Rally in Coffee Is Brewing."

December 4 - U.S. unemployment rate improved from 10.2% to 10.0% in November, much better than expected.

November 27 - Surprise debt crisis in Dubai: Big change or temporary blip?

November 27 - Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.3% to 5.1%, much better than expected for the third consecutive month. Highest spot yen close since 1995.

November 25 - U.S. jobless claims fall 35,000 to 466,000, the lowest in 14 months.

November 25 - U.S. new home sales up 6.2% in October and up 5.1% from a year ago, much stronger than expected.

November 3 - IMF sells 200 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India. Gold hits new record high.

October 30 - Japan's unemployment rate improved from 5.5% to 5.3% in September, the best in four months.

October 29 - Chinese officials agreed to end their six-month ban on U.S. pork imports.

October 9 - USDA: Florida's 2009-2010 orange crop estimate at 136 million boxes, less than expected.

October 9 - Canada's unemployment rate unexpectedly improved from 8.7% to 8.4% in September, the first decline since last fall.

October 8 - ICSG est.: World copper production surplus of 539,000 tons in 2010, up from their April estimate of 400,000 tons.

September 18 - USDA: 492,529 acres of commercial orange trees in Florida, down 1% from a year ago and the lowest total since 1986.

September 11 - First mention of severe drought conditions affecting China's corn crop.

August 21 - This week, Warren Buffett, Joseph Stiglitz, and PIMCO's El Erian all made negative comments about the U.S. dollar.

August 19 - The World Gold Council said that central banks bought 14 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2009 - "the first net purchase by central banks for a considerable length of time."

August 13 - France and Germany surprise markets with .3% positive growth in the second quarter.


See the archive for market-moving news >

The choice is simple...
If we treat healthcare as a public good, everyone receives it and it costs the country roughly 9% of GDP. Keep healthcare as a private good and it costs at least 15% of GDP (and rising). And what does the U.S. get for spending an extra $1 trillion per year? The highest rate of preventable deaths among 19 wealthy nations.


Why are banks still permitted to trade derivatives?
The U.S. financial system will never be sound until bankers are banned from making high-leverage, unsecured bets with our government-insured deposits.


Andrew Jackson knew what to do -
In the 1830s showdown between elected officials and big banks, President Andrew Jackson went toe-to-toe with Nicolas Biddle of the Second Bank of the United States. Both sides won several rounds and finally it came down to this - could Jackson really move the money of the U.S. government away from the Second Bank? He could and did. And despite being threatened - by bankers, naturally - with dire consequences, the U.S. had a very good 19th century.

Read "Move Your Politician's Money" by Simon Johnson at Baselinescenario.com.

Top News Articles

Trading Backwards

How This Site Can Help You

Monday, February 8

Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years


Next big storm starting off in Central U.S.


How Many Corn Acres are Needed in 2010?


(Canada's) Housing starts rise again in January


Forecast of bigger deficit revives sugar price


NCC: 10.1 million cotton acres


Cocoa Peaking Means Kraft Wins Cadbury on Margin Gain


ABC News interview with U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner (video)


Australia signs huge China coal deal


Total shutdowns costly, but old refineries find other work


European Central Bank in a Squeeze


West alarmed as Iran steps up enrichment of uranium stocks

Friday, February 5

(U.S.) Payrolls fall in January, jobless rate at 5-month low


Canadian job market gains 43,000 in January


Major Mid-Atlantic snowstorm in the works


Reserve Bank (of Australia) modestly lifts inflation forecasts, sees further rate rises


Australian wheat sowings to show 'marked decline'


Lumber market may point to strength in housing


2010 looks promising for beef farmers


India May Harvest Record Wheat Crop on Cool Weather

Five Star Articles

Moyers Interview with David Corn and Kevin Drum

Health Care Abroad: Taiwan

Roosevelt Understood the Power of a Public Option

Citrus growers: We're struggling to save industry

Paul Volcker Finds a Hammer

Moyers Interview with Wendell Potter (video)

Canadian Health Care Tops U.S. in Studies Showing Wait Worth It

The Vote That Changed Our World - The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999

Canadian Banks: A better system

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