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Dailyfutures.com
Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Cotton Futures Markets
Corn
Chart Comment
Cold and wet harvest weather pushed corn prices higher in the fall, but $4.25 held firm as resistance. Hopes for higher prices got hit hard on January 12th from a bearish USDA report and news that China was restraining its economy. Prices are now below the 100-day average (updated 1-22).
Key Events - Corn
2010
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.675 to 1.764 million bushels.
2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
9-28 - USGC: China's corn crop est. at 149 million tons v. 166 million tons a year ago.
9-15 - Possible frost in the forecast for next week (didn't come true).
9-11 - First mention of severe drought conditions affecting China's corn crop.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.621 to 1.635 billion bushels.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. at 1.62 billion bushels.
7-23 - USDA to re-survey corn acres in seven states that planted late due to wet weather. Results will be in the August 12th report.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. at 1.55 billion bushels.
6-30 - USDA: 87.04 million planted acres, +1% from a year ago, the second most acres since 1946, and much more than expected.
6-10 - USDA 2009-2010 ending stocks estimate at 1.090 billion bushels.
6-2 - USDA: 93% of corn crop is planted.
5-18 - USDA: Only 62% of corn crop is planted.
5-12 - USDA 2010 U.S. ending stocks estimate at 1.145 billion bushels.
4-27 - Outbreak of swine flu in Mexico becomes an international health emergency.
3-31 - USDA reduced its 2009 planting estimate for corn from 86 to 85 million acres.
3-18 - Two-cent drop in the U.S. dollar after the Fed said that it will keep the federal funds rate low "for an extended period."
3-11 - USDA 2009 ending stocks estimate reduced from 1.790 to 1.740 billion bushels.
2-27 - USDA predicts 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks at 1.72 billion bushels, down from 1.79 billion bushels in 2008-2009.
2-12 - USDA predicts U.S. corn crop at 12.68 billion bushels in 2009, up 5% from 2008.
1-16 - Talk of dry weather in South America.
1-12 - USDA 2009 ending stocks estimate increased from 1.474 to 1.790 billion bushels.
Fundamental Notes
On January 12, 2009, the USDA increased its estimate of 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks from 1.675 to 1.764 billion bushels, up slightly from the previous year. That put the 2010 ending stocks to use ratio at 13%. On the world scene, the USDA is looking for 2009-2010 ending stocks to fall from 146 to 136 million tons, or 17% of annual use.
In 2009-2010, the USDA expects exports to be up 10% and so far, they are up 6%. On December 22nd, the USDA said that 95% of the corn crop was harvested.
| U.S. Corn Market Statistics (in billion bushels) | |||||||||
| Year ending Sept. 30, | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Production | 9.50 | 8.97 | 10.09 | 11.81 | 11.11 | 10.53 | 13.04 | 12.09e | 13.15e |
| Total Use | 9.81 | 9.49 | 10.23 | 10.66 | 11.27 | 11.21 | 12.74 | 12.06e | 13.07e |
| Ethanol Use | na | 1.00 | 1.17 | 1.32 | 1.60 | 2.12 | 3.05 | 3.68e | 4.20e |
| Ending Stocks | 1.60 | 1.09 | .96 | 2.11 | 1.97 | 1.30 | 1.62 | 1.67e | 1.764e |
| Stocks/Use ratio | .16 | .11 | .09 | .20 | .17 | .12 | .13 | .14e | .13e |
| USDA corn crop maps: USA, China, or Brazil. | |||||||||
| U.S. Ethanol Market Statistics (in billion gallons) | |||||||||
| Calendar year | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 |
| Production | 1.77 | 2.13 | 2.80 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 4.85 | 6.50 | 9.20 | |
Soybeans
Chart Comment
Prices turned higher in the fall, helped by poor harvest conditions and strong exports to China, but never did reach the June high of $11. On January 12th, prices crashed below the 100-day average with news of China's tightening - a bearish sign (updated 1-16).
Key Events - Soybeans
2010
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.
2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
11-27 - USDA: 2009-2010 soybean exports jump from up 24% to up 37% from a year ago, the third consecutive week of significant increase and much more than the USDA estimate.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 230 to 270 million bushels.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 220 to 230 million bushels.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 210 to 220 million bushels.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 250 to 210 million bushels.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 210 to 250 million bushels.
6-30 - USDA: 77.48 million planted acres, +2% from a year ago and a new record high, but less than expected.
6-10 - USDA: "Brazil's soybean oil exports are expected to decline sharply as the government announced a further increase in biodiesel admixtures."
6-10 - USDA: 2009-2010 ending stocks estimate reduced from 230 to 210 million bushels. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate reduced from 130 to 110 million bushels.
Fundamental Notes
On January 12, 2009, the USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. 2009-2010 ending stocks from 255 to 245 million bushels, up from 138 million bushels in 2008-2009. The resulting 2010 ending stocks to use ratio is 8%, a more comfortable margin than the previous two years. Worldwide, the USDA estimated that 2009-2010 ending stocks will increase from 43 to 60 million tons or 25% of annual use.
In 2009-2010, the USDA expects exports to be up 7% and so far, they are up 41%.
| U.S. Soybean Market Statistics (in billion bushels) | |||||||||
| Year ending Aug. 31, | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Production | 2.89 | 2.76 | 2.45 | 3.12 | 3.06 | 3.20 | 2.68 | 2.97e | 3.36e |
| Total Use | 2.93 | 2.79 | 2.52 | 2.99 | 2.87 | 3.08 | 3.06 | 3.05e | 3.26e |
| Ending Stocks | .208 | .178 | .112 | .256 | .449 | .574 | .205 | .138e | .245e |
| Stocks/Use ratio | .07 | .06 | .04 | .09 | .16 | .19 | .07 | .05e | .08e |
| USDA soybean crop maps: USA, and Brazil. | |||||||||
Wheat
Chart Comment
For old crop wheat, the USDA expects the largest ending stocks to use ratio since 1986-1987. For new crop wheat, a smaller planting is expected. On January 15th, prices closed at their lowest in three months and below the 100-day average - a sign of weakness (updated 2-5).
Key Events - Wheat
2010
1-21 - IGC predicts 2010-2011 world wheat production at 653 million tons.
1-12 - USDA: Winter wheat seeded area estimated at 37.097 million acres, down 14% from a year ago and the smallest area since 1913.
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 900 to 976 million bushels. Stocks to use ratio now at 49%, the highest since 1986-1987.
2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 885 to 900 million bushels.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 864 to 885 million bushels.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 743 to 864 million bushels.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. stayed at 743 million bushels.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 706 to 743 million bushels.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 647 to 706 million bushels.
6-30 - USDA: 59.78 million planted acres, -5% from a year ago.
2007
2-15 - Government of India bans wheat exports due to concerns of an impending shortage.
Fundamental Notes
On January 12, 2009, the USDA increased its estimate of 2009-2010 U.S. ending stocks from 900 to 976 million bushels, up from 657 million bushels in 2008-2009. The resulting U.S. ending stocks to use ratio is a whopping 49%, the highst since 1986-1987. Worldwide, the USDA is expecting 2009-2010 ending stocks to increase from 164 to 196 million tons, or 30% of annual use. The 2010 winter wheat seeded area was estimated at 37.1 million acres, down 14% from the previous year.
In the new 2009-2010 season, the USDA expects wheat exports to be down 19% and so far, they are down 26% from a year ago. On November 30, 2009, the USDA said that 63% of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent.
| U.S. Wheat Market Statistics (in billion bushels) | |||||||||
| Year ending May 31, | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Production | 1.95 | 1.61 | 2.35 | 2.16 | 2.11 | 1.81 | 2.05 | 2.50e | 2.22e |
| Total Use | 2.15 | 1.97 | 2.35 | 2.23 | 2.15 | 2.04 | 2.31 | 2.27e | 2.01e |
| Ending Stocks | .777 | .491 | .546 | .540 | .571 | .456 | .306 | .657e | .976e |
| Stocks/Use ratio | .36 | .25 | .23 | .24 | .26 | .22 | .13 | .29e | .49e |
| USDA wheat crop maps: USA spring, and USA winter. | |||||||||
Cotton
Chart Comment
Cotton had a nice rally in 2009, but on January 25th, prices closed below the 100-day average - a sign of weakness as long as prices stay below 71 cents (updated 2-4).
Key Events - Cotton
2010
2-8 - NCC est.: 10.1 million acres of planted acres in 2010, up 10% from a year ago.
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 4.5 to 4.3 million bales.
2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 4.9 to 4.5 million bales.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 5.4 to 4.9 million bales.
10-27 - India plants record high 24.7 million acres of cotton; expects 31.3 million bale crop.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. kept at 5.6 million bales.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. kept at 5.6 million bales.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. kept at 5.6 million bales.
6-30 - USDA: 9.05 million planted acres, -4% from a year ago.
Fundamental Notes
On January 12, 2009, the USDA lowered its estimate of U.S. 2009-2010 ending stocks from 4.5 to 4.3 million bales, down from 6.3 million bales in 2008-2009. That puts the 2009-2010 ending stocks to use ratio at 30%, the lowest in four years. Worldwide, the USDA expects 2010 ending stocks to fall from 61 to 52 million bales, or 45% of annual use.
In 2009-2010, the USDA expects exports to be down 17% and, so far, they are down 31%. On December 22nd, the USDA said that 94% of the cotton was harvested.
| U.S. Cotton Market Statistics (in million bales) | |||||||||
| Year ending May 31, | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 |
| Production | 20.3 | 17.2 | 18.3 | 23.3 | 23.9 | 21.6 | 19.2 | 12.8e | 12.4e |
| Total Use | 18.7 | 19.2 | 20.0 | 21.1 | 23.4 | 17.9 | 18.2 | 16.9e | 14.4e |
| Ending Stocks | 7.45 | 5.39 | 3.51 | 5.50 | 6.05 | 9.48 | 10.04 | 6.34e | 4.30e |
| Stocks/Use ratio | .40 | .28 | .18 | .26 | .25 | .53 | .55 | .37e | .30e |
| USDA cotton crop maps: China, and USA. | |||||||||
Tons and bushels
One million metric tons of corn equals 39.37 million bushels.
One million metric tons of soybeans or wheat equals 36.74 million bushels.
One million metric tons of cotton equals 4.593 million bales.
One bushel of corn produces (roughly) 2.8 gallons of ethanol.
One metric ton of ethanol equals 7.94 petroleum barrels.
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