Corn, soybean, wheat and cotton futures market information.

Fundamental Notes

On August 12, 2010, the USDA reduced its estimate of 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks from 1.373 to 1.312 billion bushels, down from 1.426 billion bushels the previous year. That put the 2011 ending stocks to use ratio at 10%, the lowest in seven years. On the world scene, the USDA is looking for 2010-2011 ending stocks to stay at 139 million tons, or 17% of annual use.

In 2009-2010, the USDA expected exports to be up 7% and that is where they finished. As of August 29, 2010, 70% of the U.S. corn crop was rated good to excellent, up from 69% a year ago.

U.S. Corn Market Statistics (in billion bushels)
Year ending Sept. 30,	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Production	9.92	9.50	8.97	10.09	11.81	11.11	10.53	13.04	12.09	13.11e	13.37e
Total Use	9.74	9.81	9.49	10.23	10.66	11.27	11.21	12.74	12.06	13.36e	13.49e
Ethanol Use	na	na	1.00	1.17	1.32	1.60	2.12	3.05	3.71	4.50e	4.70e
Ending Stocks	1.90	1.60	1.09	.96	2.11	1.97	1.30	1.62	1.67	1.43e	1.31e
Stocks/Use ratio	.20	.16	.11	.09	.20	.17	.12	.13	.14	.11e	.10e

U.S. Corn Market Statistics (in billion bushels)
Year ending
Sept. 30, 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Production 7.53 7.93 7.48 9.48 6.34 10.10 7.37 9.29 9.21 9.76 9.43
Total Use 8.12 7.76 7.91 8.47 7.62 9.40 8.52 8.85 8.79 9.30 9.51
Ending Stocks 1.34 1.52 1.10 2.11 .85 1.56 .43 .88 1.31 1.79 1.72
Stocks/Use ratio .17 .20 .14 .25 .11 .17 .05 .10 .15 .19 .18

Top Three Producers
In 2009-2010:
U.S. (41% of world production)
China (19%)
EU-27 (7%) USDA corn crop maps:

USA, China, or Brazil. Harvest Time:
Mar-May in South America.
Oct-Nov in the U.S.

Notable Quote:
"Estimates for non-land costs to raise the 2010 corn crop in the central Corn Belt are seen at $452 per acre, down $114 per acre from a year ago, according to University of Illinois Extension economist Gary Schnitkey. Soybean per-acre costs are seen around $300, down from $327 per acre last year."

Jeff Caldwell, Agriculture.com, March 1, 2010.
(Dailyfutures note: Based on the 2009 yield, the $452 cost of corn translates to $2.74 per bushel and the $300 cost of soybeans amounts to $6.82 per bushel).

Key Events - Corn

2010
8-12 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 1.373 to 1.312 billion bushels.
7-9 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 1.573 to 1.373 billion bushels.
6-30 - USDA est.: 87.87 million acres of corn planted in 2010, up almost 2% from a year ago and less than expected.
6-10 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 1.818 to 1.573 billion bushels.
5-11 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. at 1.818 billion bushels. 2009-2010 est. reduced from 1.899 to 1.738 billion bushels.
4-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.799 to 1.899 billion bushels.
3-31 - USDA est.: 88.8 million acres of corn to be planted, up 3% from a year ago.
3-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.719 to 1.799 billion bushels.
2-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 1.764 to 1.719 million bushels.
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.675 to 1.764 million bushels.

2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.625 to 1.675 billion bushels.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 1.672 to 1.625 billion bushels.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.635 to 1.672 billion bushels.
9-28 - USGC: China's corn crop est. at 149 million tons v. 166 million tons a year ago.
9-15 - Possible frost in the forecast for next week (didn't come true).
9-11 - First mention of severe drought conditions affecting China's corn crop.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 1.621 to 1.635 billion bushels.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. at 1.62 billion bushels.
7-23 - USDA to re-survey corn acres in seven states that planted late due to wet weather. Results will be in the August 12th report.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. at 1.55 billion bushels.
6-30 - USDA: 87.04 million planted acres, +1% from a year ago, the second most acres since 1946, and much more than expected.

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Fundamental Notes

On August 12, 2010, the USDA kept its estimate of U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks at 360 million bushels, up from 160 million bushels in 2009-2010. The resulting 2010-2011 ending stocks to use ratio is 11%, the most in four years. Worldwide, the USDA estimated that 2010-2011 ending stocks will increase from 64 to 65 million tons or 26% of annual use.

For 2009-2010, the USDA expected exports to be up 15%, but they finished up 17%. As of August 29, 2010, the USDA said that 64% of the soybean crop was rated good to excellent, down from 69% a year ago.

U.S. Soybean Market Statistics (in billion bushels)
Year ending Aug. 31,	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Production	2.76	2.89	2.76	2.45	3.12	3.06	3.20	2.68	2.97	3.36e	3.43e
Total Use	2.80	2.93	2.79	2.52	2.99	2.87	3.08	3.06	3.05	3.35e	3.24e
Ending Stocks	.248	.208	.178	.112	.256	.449	.574	.205	.138	.160e	.360e
Stocks/Use ratio	.09	.07	.06	.04	.09	.16	.19	.07	.05	.05e	.11e

U.S. Soybean Market Statistics (in billion bushels)
Year ending
Aug. 31, 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Production 1.92 1.93 1.99 2.19 1.87 2.52 2.18 2.38 2.69 2.74 2.65
Total Use 1.87 1.84 2.04 2.18 1.96 2.40 2.33 2.44 2.63 2.59 2.72
Ending Stocks .239 .329 .278 .292 .209 .335 .183 .131 .200 .348 .290
Stocks/Use ratio .13 .18 .14 .13 .11 .14 .08 .05 .08 .13 .11

Top Three Producers
In 2009-2010:
U.S. (35% of world production)
Brazil (26%)
Argentina (21%) USDA soybean crop maps:

USA and Brazil. Harvest Time:
Feb-May in Brazil.
Oct-Nov in the U.S.

Key Events - Soybeans

2010
8-12 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. kept at 360 million bushels.
8-2 - Celeres: Brazil's soybean production will total 67.7 million tons in 2010-2011, down from 68.5 million tons in 2009-2010.
7-9 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. kept at 360 million bushels.
6-30 - USDA est.: Record high 78.87 million acres of soybeans planted in 2010, up almost 2% from a year ago and more than expected.
6-10 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 365 to 360 million bushels.
5-11 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. at 365 million bushels. 2009-2010 est. stayed at 190 million bushels.
4-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. stayed at 190 million bushels.
3-31 - USDA est.: 78.1 million acres of soybeans to be planted, up slightly from a year ago.
3-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 210 to 190 million bushels.
2-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 245 to 210 million bushels.
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 255 to 245 million bushels.

2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 270 to 255 million bushels.
11-27 - USDA: 2009-2010 soybean exports jump from up 24% to up 37% from a year ago, the third consecutive week of significant increase and much more than the USDA estimate.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 230 to 270 million bushels.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 220 to 230 million bushels.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 210 to 220 million bushels.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 250 to 210 million bushels.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 210 to 250 million bushels.
6-30 - USDA: 77.48 million planted acres, +2% from a year ago and a new record high, but less than expected.
6-10 - USDA: "Brazil's soybean oil exports are expected to decline sharply as the government announced a further increase in biodiesel admixtures."
6-10 - USDA: 2009-2010 ending stocks estimate reduced from 230 to 210 million bushels. 2008-2009 ending stocks estimate reduced from 130 to 110 million bushels.

Fundamental Notes

On August 12, 2010, the USDA reduced its estimate of 2010-2011 U.S. ending stocks from 1,093 to 952 million bushels, up from 973 million bushels in 2009-2010. The resulting U.S. ending stocks to use ratio for 2010-2011 is still a comfortable 40%. Worldwide, the USDA is expecting 2010-2011 ending stocks to fall from 194 to 175 million tons, or 26% of annual use.

In 2010-2011, the USDA expects wheat exports to be up 36% and, so far, they are up 31%. As of August 29, 2010, the USDA said that 69% of the spring wheat was harvested.

U.S. Wheat Market Statistics (in billion bushels)
Year ending
May 31, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Production 2.23 1.96 1.61 2.35 2.16 2.11 1.81 2.05 2.50 2.22e 2.27e
Total Use 2.40 2.16 1.97 2.35 2.23 2.15 2.04 2.31 2.27 2.02e 2.39e
Ending Stocks .876 .777 .491 .546 .540 .571 .456 .306 .657 .973e .952e
Stocks/Use ratio .37 .36 .25 .23 .24 .26 .22 .13 .29 .48e .40e

U.S. Wheat Market Statistics (in billion bushels)
Year ending
May 31, 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Production 2.04 2.74 1.98 2.47 2.40 2.32 2.18 2.29 2.48 2.55 2.30
Total Use 2.22 2.44 2.42 2.48 2.47 2.47 2.38 2.31 2.30 2.43 2.39
Ending Stocks .537 .866 .472 .531 .568 .507 .376 .444 .722 .946 .950
Stocks/Use ratio .24 .35 .20 .21 .23 .21 .16 .19 .31 .39 .40

Top Three Producers
In 2009-2010:
EU-27 (20% of world production)
China (17%)
Russia (9%) USDA wheat crop maps:

USA spring and USA winter. Harvest Time:
May-July for U.S. winter wheat.
July-Aug in Europe.
Aug-Sep for U.S. spring wheat.

Key Events - Wheat

2010
8-12 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 1,093 to 952 million bushels.
8-5 - Russia announced a temporary ban on grain exports due to drought.
7-9 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. increased from .991 to 1.093 billion bushels.

7-6 - First mention of possible drought in Russia.
6-30 - USDA est.: 54.31 million acres of all wheat planted in 2010, down 8% from a year ago and more than expected.
6-10 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 997 to 991 million bushels.
6-3 - U.N. est.: World ending stocks of wheat to fall from 196.1 to 194.1 million tons in 2010-2011.
5-11 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. at 997 million bushels. 2009-2010 est. reduced kept at 950 million bushels.
4-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 1,001 to 950 million bushels.
3-31 - USDA est.: 53.8 million acres of wheat to be planted, down 9% from a year ago.
3-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from .981 to 1.001 billion bushels.
2-16 - Australia lowered its estimate of the 2009-2010 wheat crop from 22.0 to 21.7 million tons.
2-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. increased from 976 to 981 million bushels.
1-21 - IGC predicts 2010-2011 world wheat production at 653 million tons.
1-12 - USDA: Winter wheat seeded area estimated at 37.097 million acres, down 14% from a year ago and the smallest area since 1913.
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 900 to 976 million bushels. Stocks to use ratio now at 49%, the highest since 1986-1987.

2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 885 to 900 million bushels.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 864 to 885 million bushels.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 743 to 864 million bushels.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. stayed at 743 million bushels.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 706 to 743 million bushels.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. increased from 647 to 706 million bushels.
6-30 - USDA: 59.78 million planted acres, -5% from a year ago.

2007
2-15 - Government of India bans wheat exports due to concerns of an impending shortage.

Fundamental Notes

On August 12, 2010, the USDA reduced its estimate of U.S. 2010-2011 ending stocks from 3.5 to 3.2 million bales, up from 3.1 million bales in 2009-2010. That puts the 2010-2011 ending stocks to use ratio at 17%, the lowest in 15 years. Worldwide, the USDA expects 2010-2011 ending stocks to fall from 48 to 46 million bales, or 38% of annual use.

In 2010-2011, the USDA expects cotton exports to be up 25% and, four weeks into the new season, exports are up 44%. As of August 29, 2010, 60% of the U.S. cotton crop was rated good to excellent, up from 51% a year ago.

U.S. Cotton Market Statistics (in million bales)
Year ending
May 31, 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Production 17.2 20.3 17.2 18.3 23.3 23.9 21.6 19.2 12.8 12.2e 18.5e
Total Use 15.6 18.7 19.2 20.0 21.1 23.4 17.9 18.2 16.9 15.4e 18.4e
Ending Stocks 6.0 7.45 5.39 3.51 5.50 6.05 9.48 10.04 6.34 3.10e 3.20e
Stocks/Use ratio .38 .40 .28 .18 .26 .25 .53 .55 .37 .20e .17e

U.S. Cotton Market Statistics (in million bales)
Year ending
May 31, 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Production 12.2 15.5 17.6 16.2 16.1 19.7 17.9 18.9 18.8 13.9 17.0
Total Use 16.4 15.4 16.3 15.4 17.3 20.6 18.3 18.0 18.8 14.7 17.0
Ending Stocks 3.00 2.60 3.70 4.66 3.53 2.65 2.61 3.97 3.89 3.94 3.92
Stocks/Use ratio .18 .17 .23 .30 .22 .13 .14 .22 .21 .27 .23

Top Three Producers
In 2009-2010:
China (32% of world production)
India (23%)
U.S. (12%) USDA cotton crop maps:

China and USA. Harvest Time:
Sept-Oct in China.
Oct-Dec in the U.S.
Nov-Feb in India.

Key Events - Cotton

2010
8-12 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 3.50 to 3.20 million bales.
8-5 - Cotton inventories monitored by ICE Futures are down to 39,563 bales, the lowest on record.
8-3 - Bloomberg news quotes analyst: China's cotton crop may be down 5% to 10% due to flooding.
7-9 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. increased from 2.80 to 3.50 million bales.
7-2 - Indian government official told Bloomberg that India will end its ban on cotton exports in the upcoming 2010-2011 season.
6-30 - USDA est.: 10.91 million acres of cotton planted in 2010, up 19% from a year ago and more than expected.
6-10 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. reduced from 3.0 to 2.8 million bales. The 2010-2011 ending stocks to use ratio is 17%, the lowest in 15 years.
5-11 - USDA 2010-2011 end. stocks est. at 3.0 million bales. 2009-2010 est. increased from 3.0 to 3.1 million bales.
4-20 - India stopped exporting cotton yesterday in an effort to protect domestic supplies.
4-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 3.2 to 3.0 million bales.
4-6 - U.S. agrees to pay Brazil in order to protect U.S. cotton subsidies.
3-31 - USDA est.: 10.5 million acres of corn to be planted, up 15% from a year ago.
3-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 3.3 to 3.2 million bales.
2-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 4.3 to 3.3 million bales. Stocks to use ratio is lowest in six years.
2-8 - NCC est.: 10.1 million acres of planted acres in 2010, up 10% from a year ago.
1-12 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 4.5 to 4.3 million bales.

2009
12-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 4.9 to 4.5 million bales.
11-10 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 5.4 to 4.9 million bales.
10-27 - India plants record high 24.7 million acres of cotton; expects 31.3 million bale crop.
10-9 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. reduced from 5.6 to 5.4 million bales.
9-11 - USDA 2009-2010 end. stocks est. kept at 5.6 million bales.
8-12 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. kept at 5.6 million bales.
7-10 - USDA 2009-2010 U.S. end. stocks est. kept at 5.6 million bales.
6-30 - USDA: 9.05 million planted acres, -4% from a year ago.

Tons and bushels

One million metric tons of corn equals 39.37 million bushels.

One million metric tons of soybeans or wheat equals 36.74 million bushels.

One million metric tons of cotton equals 4.593 million bales.

One bushel of corn produces (roughly) 2.8 gallons of ethanol.

One metric ton of ethanol equals 7.94 petroleum barrels.

Dailyfutures.com

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Cotton Futures Markets

Tons and bushels