Copper futures, gold futures, and silver futures market information.

Key Events - Copper

2010
1-21 - China's copper imports total 244,013 tons in December, up 25% on the month.
1-20 - Chinese government orders banks to restrain lending.
1-20 - LME copper inventory at 526,650 tons, the most in ten months.
1-12 - China will raise its bank reserve requirement by .5% on January 18th.
1-12 - Industrial production in India was up 11.7% in November from a year ago, the biggest gain in over two years.
1-11 - Bloomberg survey of 23 analysts: World copper production in 2010 will exceed demand by 63,500 tons.
1-4 - An index of manufacturing in China increased from 55.7 to 56.1 in December, the highest in five years.

2009
12-11 - China's industrial production +19.2% in November from a year ago, the biggest annual gain in over two years.
12-1 - The Chinese government's index of manufacturing was unchanged at 55.2 in November, the ninth consecutive month of expansion.
11-30 - LME copper inventory at 438,525 tons, the highest since late-April.
11-11 - China's industrial production up 16.1% in October from a year ago, stronger than expected. Copper imports totaled 263,109 tons in October, down 34% on the month.
11-3 - LME copper inventory at 373,800 tons, the most since May 12th.
11-2 - Positive manufacturing reports from China, U.S., U.K., and Europe.
10-29 - IMF est.: 2010 GDP growth of 9% in China and 6.4% in India.
10-22 - Real GDP in China +8.9% in Q3 from a year ago, the most annual growth in a year.
10-14 - China imported 399,052 tons of copper in September, up 23% from August.
10-14 - LME copper inventory at 353,225 tons, the most since May 18th.
10-8 - ICSG est.: World production surplus of 370,000 tons in 2009 and 540,000 tons in 2010.
9-22 - Asian Development Bank: Real GDP in China will be up 8.2% in 2009 and up 8.9% in 2010.
9-11 - China's industrial output was up 12.3% in August from a year ago, much stronger than expected.
7-30 - Japan's industrial production +8.3% in Q2, the best quarterly increase since 1953.
6-22 - China imported 337,230 tons of copper in May, a record high and more than three times a year ago.
6-1 - 3 signs of improvement: Manufacturing index for China shows third consecutive month of expansion. U.S. manufacturing index is 42.8 in May, the highest since September of 2008. U.K. manufacturing index hits 45.4 in May, the highest in a year. Also, GM goes Chapter 11.
5-29 - Japan's industrial production was up 5.2% in April, the biggest monthly gain in 56 years.
5-28 - U.S. durable goods orders up 1.9% in April, much stronger than expected.
5-22 - China's copper imports were up 149% in April from a year ago.
5-8 - China's vehicle sales were up 25% in April.
5-4 - China's manufacturing index confirms first expansion in nine months.
5-1 - U.S. manufacturing index scores 40.1 in May, better than expected.
4-30 - Chrysler goes Chapter 11.
4-22 - China imports record high 296,843 tons of copper in March.
4-21 - ICSG est.: World production surplus of 345,000 tons in 2009 and 400,000 tons in 2010.
4-3 - Manufacturing index in China shows expansion in March.
4-1 - China's purchasing managers' index shows eight consecutive month of contraction in March.

Fundamental Notes

On January 20, 2010, the International Copper Study Group's (ICSG) preliminary data showed that world copper production exceeded refined usage by 78,000 tons in the first ten months of 2009, compared to a deficit of 58,000 tons the previous year. So far in 2009, world refined production is down slightly while refined usage is down 1%. In 2008, world refined production exceeded consumption by 225,000 tons.

On October 8, 2009, the ICSG predicted that copper will show a world production surplus of 368,000 tons in 2009 and 539,000 tons in 2010. That is up from their April estimate of a 345,000 ton surplus in 2009 and a 400,000 ton surplus in 2010. On August 17, 2009, the world's largest copper producer, Codelco, said that it had production costs of roughly $1.70 per pound in the first half of 2009.

World Copper Mine Production (million metric tons):
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
12.2 12.7 13.2 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.4e 15.7e 17.4e

Key Events - Gold

2009
11-19 - WGC: Mine production up 6% in Q3 v. a year ago. World demand down 34% in Q3 from a year ago.
11-3 - IMF sells 200 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for $6.7 billion.
8-19 - The World Gold Council said that central banks bought 14 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2009 - "the first net purchase by central banks for a considerable length of time."
8-13 - South Africa gold production down 12% in June v. a year ago.

2001
9-11.

Fundamental Notes

The tables have turned dramatically for gold since prices dipped to $270 in 2001. Now in 2009, prices are above $1,000 and much of the credit can go to the consolidation that took place in the mining industry, along with a weaker U.S. economy and falling dollar.

Back when the dollar was strong, the heaviest burden on gold prices came from central bank sales. In September of 2009, the European Central Bank and 18 others agreed to limit sales for five years to 400 tons per year. Now that gold prices are higher and the dollar's future is in question, most banks aren't so eager to sell. On April 8, 2008, the International Monetary Fund let it be known that it may sell 13 million ounces of gold over several years to raise cash. On November 3, 2009, the IMF sold roughly half of that amount to India.

On August 19, 2009, the WGC noted that central banks bought 14 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2009 - "the first net purchase by central banks for a considerable length of time." On November 19, 2009, the World Gold Council (WGC) said that world gold demand was down 34% in the third quarter of 2009 from its big surge of a year ago. They also said that mine production was up 6% in the third quarter from a year ago. On September 14, 2009, GFMS, Ltd. said that production costs at primary gold mines were over $600 per ounce.

World Gold Mine Production (million troy ounces):
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
79.1 81.7 83.1 84.3 83.3 81.7 77.8 79.7 79.9 77.1e 77.6e 82.9p

Fundamental Notes

Until prices exploded higher in late-2003, it was hard to find anything positive to say about silver. The main changes have been the consolidation that has taken place in the gold and copper industries and the difficulty in developing new sources of production. As much as 75% of silver's production comes from gold, copper, lead, and zinc mining which is why changes in these other industries have a large impact on the price of silver. On the demand side, silver (like most commodities) benefits from strong world growth and a weaker U.S. dollar. According to an article in Barron's on June 8, 2009, the cash cost of producing silver is somewhere around $4.50 to $5.30 an ounce, but that rises to as much as $12 per ounce if exploration costs are included.

Fundamental data is hard to come by for the silver market, but the Silver Institute said that world mine production totalled 681 million ounces in 2007, up 2.5% from the previous year. 2008 fabrication demand totalled 833 million ounces, down 1% from the previous year.

Notable Quote:
(Penoles) has one of the lowest cost structures in silver because of above-average ore grades. (S&P Credit Analysts Juan Pablo) Becerra and (Laura) Martinez estimates the company cash cost was $4 to $5 per ounce as of March 31, 2009, which they said compares favorably with Penoles' global peers and the average price of silver during the same period.

Dorothy Kosich, Standard and Poor's. August 3, 2009.

World Silver Mine Production (million ounces):
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
542 557 591 606 594 597 613 637 641 664e 681e

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