Fundamental Stats -

On March 4, 2007, the Ivory Coast government and rebel forces agreed to form a new government and, on April 14, 2008, they said that they will hold national elections on November 30th. The country has been divided since 2002 and it has been hard to reconcile the two sides since then. The other threat to the world's cocoa crop comes from weather and the swollen shoot virus. According to a BBC News report on October 13, 2006, the virus is not being contained and some cocoa plantations are being abandoned. Low prices have made it hard for producers to keep up with applying the sprays and fertilizers that might have helped. The Ivory Coast and Ghana account for over one-half of the world's cocoa production.

Obtaining recent data on world cocoa statistics is difficult. On May 21, 2008, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) estimated that world production of cocoa will fall short of consumption by 41,000 tons in 2007-2008. The ICCO also said that they expect 2007-2008 ending stocks of 1.53 million tons or 41% of annual use. There are reports that quality of the cocoa beans might be suspect in the Ivory Coast this year and Indonesia is having trouble with a fungal disease. Europe's cocoa grind totalled 328,920 tons in the second quarter of 2008, up 2% from a year ago. In the U.S., the cocoa grind totaled 80,415 tons in the second quarter, down 16% from a year ago.

World Cocoa Market Estimates (in million metric tons)
Year ending September 30,	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Net Production	2.87	3.17	3.54	3.39	3.72e	3.37e	3.74e
Grindings	2.89	3.08	3.24	3.35	3.49e	3.64e	3.74e
Ending Stocks	1.34	1.41	1.68	1.69	1.88e	1.57e	1.53e
Stocks/Use Ratio	.46	.46	.52	.50	.54e	.43e	.41e

Fundamental Stats -

On June 13, 2008, the USDA estimated 2008-2009 world coffee production at a record-high 140.6 million (60 kg) bags with implied use of 135.8 million bags. That puts 2008-2009 ending coffee stocks at 17.2 million bags, or 13% of annual use, which is historically low. Brazil's crop was pegged at 51.1 million bags, up from 37.6 million bags a year ago. Vietnam's crop was estimated at 21.5 million bags, up from 17.5 million bags a year ago.

On May 8, 2008, the government of Brazil predicted their next coffee crop would total 45.5 million (60 kg) bags... less than most analysts believe. In its July report, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimated 2008-2009 world coffee production at 128 million bags in 2008-2009, up from 118.1 million bags in 2007-2008. However, the ICO's world estimate is based on Brazil's official production estimate of 45.5 million bags which most agree is too low. World consumption was estimated at 126.5 million bags in 2008.

Fundamental Stats -

On May 20, 2008, the USDA said that 2008-2009 world sugar production will total 161.7 million tons, down from 165.4 million tons the previous year. Thanks to rising ethanol demand, the USDA expects ending stocks to fall 3.5 million tons to 41.44 million tons, or 25% of annual use. Brazil's production is expected to increase 5% in 2008-2009 to 33.7 million tons, but India's production is expected to fall 14% to 24.8 million tons. Beware: the USDA commonly revises its world sugar data as far back as four years or more.

On August 28, 2008, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicted that the world will consume 3.9 million tons more sugar than it will produce in 2008-2009. On April 29, 2008, Brazil pegged its first estimate of the nation's 2008-2009 sugar production at 34.5 million tons, up from 31.3 million tons the previous year. On May 28, 2008, the private firm, Czarnikow, was quoted as saying that 10 cents a pound is "well below production costs."

World Sugar Market Statistics (in million metric tons)
Year ending September 30,	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Production	130.7	134.3	148.5	142.4	140.7	144.9	164.2e	165.4e	161.7e
Implied Total Use	129.2	133.3	144.3	144.4	145.6	147.5	155.2e	160.5e	165.2e
Ending Stocks	38.9	36.6	40.5	38.5	33.7	31.1	40.0e	44.9e	41.4e
Stocks to use ratio	.30	.27	.28	.27	.23	.21	.26e	.28e	.25e
Brazil sugarcane map

Fundamental Stats -

2007-2008 saw a good Florida orange harvest and another one is likely in 2008-2009. On July 11, 2008, the USDA increased its estimate of the 2007-2008 Florida orange crop from 169 to 170 million boxes, up from 129 million boxes the previous year. The projected juice yield was kept at a record high 1.67 gallons per box at 42.0 degrees Brix, above last year's record high 1.65 gallons per box. Looking ahead to 2008-2009, analyst Judith Ganes-Chase predicted that Florida will harvest roughly 190 million boxes of oranges.

On February 7, 2007, the USDA's Florida Field Office said that Florida had 70.85 million orange trees (on 529,241 acres), down 14% from two years earlier. On July 24, 2008, the USDA estimated that there would be 327,000 tons of ending stocks in 2008, or 41% of the year's production (at 65 degrees Brix). As of July 31, 2008, there were 1.42 billion pounds of frozen orange juice in U.S. cold storage, up 68% from a year ago.

In 2007, Brazil's government estimated that the country produced 17.9 million tons of oranges, down from 18.1 million tons in 2006. There are potential problems on the horizon. Brazil has lost over two million trees to sudden citrus disease and now orange farmers are concerned about an outbreak of citrus greening disease. There is no cure to this disease, it is fatal to the trees, and it may have already spread throughout Brazil. In addition to threats from nature, on January 9, 2006, the U.S. began charging Brazilian exporters a 15% tariff (or more, depending on the exporter's cooperation) for "dumping" orange juice in the U.S. The tariff originally began in August of 2005 and was as high as 31%. In all of 2007, Brazil's exports were up 7%. In the first six months 2008, Brazil's exports were down 16% from a year ago.

World Orange Juice Market Statistics (in million boxes)
Year ending September 30,	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008
Production	233	223	230	203	150	148	129e	170e
Brazil citrus map